Statistics students keep lottery board honest

By Matt Flores Express-News Staff Writer

If there were numbers police, Gerald Busald probably would be top cop. At least he would be the odds-on favorite.

Busald, a statistics professor at San Antonio College, has run math circles around the Texas Lottery Commission for years, with the help of his students. Now, he has done it again. But the latest triumph over the commission has more to do with his students, and really is more about semantics than math.

Busald and eight of his students traveled to Austin on Nov. 29 to attend a commission meeting. Three of his students testified that the agency was misleading players of scratch-off games. At issue was the way the commission defined winning tickets. Scratch-off buyers who broke even, those who claimed cash prizes equal to the $2 value of the ticket, were among those the commission considered "winners."

SAC students argued otherwise and maintained the agency misleadingly based its odds of winning on all tickets that awarded cash prizes, including those in which players won their money back. About half of all "winning" tickets actually were "break-even" tickets, the students said.

Instead of the one-in-four chances of winning some scratch-off tickets claimed, students maintained the odds against winning more than the ticket's cost were actually double what is advertised. In her testimony to the commission, student Nicole Cunningham said, "I don't think that's fair, and I don't think it's right. It's unethical."

Cunningham, who Busald credits with leading the effort to change the language on the flip side of scratch-off cards, said she had taken it upon herself to conduct an informal poll of ticket buyers to see what they thought. She talked to dozens of people, from vagrants to executives.

"The thing that bothered me most is that people don't really know the odds of winning," Cunningham said. "I was stopping people at gas stations and convenience stores, asking them if they thought they won or if they broke even if they got $2. Not one of them thought of it as winning."

Her argument, and those of two other fellow students, apparently were enough to sway the agency's executive director, Linda Cloud, to change the language on cards when new ones are printed. When new cards hit stores in about six months, they will read: "Overall odds of winning any prize, including break-even prizes, are ..." Currently, tickets refer to "overall odds."

"If that will solve anybody's question about whether the lottery is deceiving the public or not, then I would absolutely suggest we do something like that," Cloud said at the hearing.

Students were most pleased when commission chairman Thomas Clowe of Waco turned to them during the meeting and said, "You won." Among those feeling a measure of satisfaction from the experience was student Kristin Brotherman, 20, who said the issue boiled down to credibility. "Most people don't even notice the odds. You may as well be honest about them," Brotherman said.

Commission spokeswoman Leticia Vasquez said the agency was following a standard set by other state lotteries in calculating odds. "There was no attempt to deceive anyone," Vasquez said.

Cloud said she knew of players who felt they won if they got their money back in a scratch-off game. Still, she said the commission was willing to make the change.

For his part, Busald was elated. "I think this is a major victory because it's going to change the way other lotteries write their rules," he said.

Another step in that direction could come next month, when the National Council of Legislators from Gaming States meets in San Antonio. The association of legislators makes policy recommendations on various gaming issues.

Busald, a self-described lottery watchdog, agreed to be a panelist during one of the council's sessions. And it won't mark the first time he turned a critical eye on the commission.

For years, Busald and students from his statistics classes have scrutinized the commission's calculations on its lotto drawings and scratch games. In 1997, Busald's students prompted the commission to pull advertisements for its Cash 5 game after demonstrating that the ads promised more in prize money than the drawing doled out. The ads claimed the average prize for those who matched all five numbers was $75,000. Students calculated the actual average to be closer to $58,000.

Although Busald characterized the discrepancy as faulty math, the commission insisted its decision to remove printed ads was not an admission of error. Later, letters from then-Lt. Gov. Bob Bullock and Gov. George W. Bush crediting students with catching the error gave them vindication.

That Busald and his students have clashed several times with the Lottery Commission over its figures might give one the impression that the statistics professor has a personal mission to discredit the agency, a conclusion he quickly dismisses.

"I don't want to be perceived as a grumpy old man," Busald said. "But how can you be a numbers game and not have your numbers right?" As for the commission, spokeswoman Vasquez said the relationship between the agency and Busald has been amicable.

"I don't think there was anything contentious at all between Mr. Busald and the commissioners," Vasquez said.

Busald essentially said he bore no ill will toward the commission or its games, although he acknowledged being one of the agency's toughest critics.

"Actually, I play Lotto," Busald said, sheepishly. "And if God had a sense of humor, I'd win."

mflores@express-news.net 12/11/2000

Many thanks to the San Antonio Express News for publishing this story. There have been several people, other than Professor Busald, that have complained about this very issue over the years but to no avail. To get the Commission to admit to errors, wrongdoings, or to simply tell the truth requires not only persistence but writing Legislators, notifying the media and getting our kids to face them! This is sad. Of course, this is how come the TLC gets away with what they do - people usually just give up.

To read the students testimony at the
Commissioners meeting, click here.

To read the Dallas Morning News story, click here.