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The Lotto Report
Posted - Sunday, January 28, 2007
Revised - Sunday, Sept 30, 2007
Click here for details about the Daily 4 Game
The Commissioners voted to withdraw this rule on Feb 21, 2007. It was changed with Click here for details about the Daily 4 Game On December 13, 2006, during the Commission meeting, the TLC asked the Commissioners to approve changes to our Pick3 game and they proposed to add a new game called "Daily 4." They had two new rules ready for approval. The approval of both rules was, in my opinion, a HUGE financial mistake for the STATE. Clearly, it's the legislature who should oppose the addition of the Daily 4 game but the legislature has no idea what the "real" impact is or will be - they were told they would see an increase in revenue. This will not be the case ... these changes will have the same results that previous online game changes have had. In previous rule changes, I've explained WHY the state would lose. But no one listened, they continued with the changes and the state LOST money just like I said they would. With the addition of another new game that will NOT bring in "new" players, I am not going to waste my time in explaining why the state will lose money with this plan. You see, I no longer care if the state loses potential revenues on its online games - BUT - I do care about issues that affect players. WE expect full disclosure regarding the game and WE expect the rules to be fair. There ARE issues in the proposed Daily 4 rule that fail in these areas. In the proposed Daily 4 rule, there is conflicting language, there is no mention of a percentage of sales that is allocated to any prize pool, they do not state the odds of the game, the "real" costs to play the game is not fully disclosed or clear and they do not show a percentage of sales that is being allocated for each prize category - a major factor since there are so many prizes that can be won playing this game. Before I get started - Let me say Thank You and Explain Myself ... For the record, let me make it clear that I do not oppose a Pick4 game for Texas. I will not play it - it's too hard to win - the Daily 4 game will literally be 10 times harder to win plus the payouts suck. I'll just stick with Pick3. What I do oppose is the loss of revenue for the state of Texas when it is a direct result of stupidity and/or ignorance. However, I've decided that I don't care if the states profits are not as good as what they could and should be. It's not my job. I've come to realize that NO ONE who works for the commission is a gambler and they have no idea what gamblers will or will not support because they've never gambled themselves. They do not understand why sales for Cash 5, Lotto Texas, Mega Millions and TX 2 Step have been declining and I'm tired of telling them. The TLC's recipe for success is to copy other states even though those states failed to generate more money. Yet the TLC continues to copy other states then later when they fail, they tell the Legislature that it just didn't work in Texas and they use the excuse that "other states did it." Details about the Daily 4 Game ... Following this writing are the problems with the rule ... There are 10,000 possible combinations. They range from 0000 to 9999. The odds of Daily 4 will be one-in-10,000 - a much harder game to win than Pick3. You will not read this in the rule if you read the rule. Ways to bet and Prize Amounts for Daily 4 I know what you're thinking about right now ... but it appears the TLC doesn't know anything about being consistent to keep confusion down from all angles!
Do you know why they changed the betting terminology? During the Commission meeting, staff explained that the new betting terminology is what other states use and staff claimed that retailers were familiar with this terminology too. So Texas should change their terminology. Gawd, what logic. Yes, I know there is no logic to this. I was being sarcastic! I disagree with the staff regarding "retailers" knowing this terminology. Perhaps upper retailer management knows the terminology, but clearly, store clerks do not. About all I can say to the terminology change is it will be fun to watch store clerks screw up. The frustration this will cause for some players will simply cost the state sales. It is my opinion that the Daily 4 language change is a HUGE mistake! But I don't really care. Straight Play Bets Box Bets But in the Daily 4, there are 4 different prize structures for box bets - one for a "4 Way Box," one for a "6 Way Box," one for a "12 way box," and one for a "24 way box." There are "24 ways" that 4 different digits can come in: 1234, 1243, 1324, 1342, 1423, 1432, 2134, 2143, 2314, 2341, 2413, 2431, 3124, 3142, 3241, 3214, 3412, 3421, 4123, 4132, 4213, 4231, 4312, 4321. A 50 cent 24 way box bet would pay $100. There are "12 ways" that two like digits (double digits) and two different digits can come in: 0021, 0012, 0120, 0210, 0201, 0102, 1002, 1020, 1200, 2001, 2100, 2010. A 50 cent 12 way box bet would pay $200. There are "6 ways" that two like digits (00) and another 2 like digits (11) can come in - 0011, 0110, 1010, 1001, 1100, 1010. A 50 cent 6 way box bet would pay $400. There are "4 ways" that 3 like digits (000) and one different digit can come in - 0001, 0010, 0100, 1000. A 50 cent 4 way box bet would pay $600. Lucky Sum The bet is simple - you simply add the four digits drawn and IF you put money on the "lucky sum" bet and IF that sum is drawn, irregardless of it being the numbers you actually played, then you win your Lucky Sum bet. The prize amounts for the Lucky Sum bet are less than desirable though. I have charted the prize amounts for all sums at the bottom of this page and I've shown the REAL cost to play. Very important - To play the "Lucky Sum," you have to have made another bet. You can't play the Lucky Sum feature without making another bet so you will spend at least $1 to play. If you play Straight/Box/Lucky Sum and you select "50 cent play," your ticket will cost you $1.50. That is 50 cent for each bet ... the "straight" bet, the "box" bet and the "lucky sum" bet. Combo Bet Front Pair, Mid Pair and Back Pair
Changes Needed - Daily 4 Proposed Rules ... Gee, sounds like if you bet "straight/box/lucky sum/front pair/mid pair/back pair" and win all, you will only receive the highest of ONE of your bets. Then just a few paragraphs later, it says ... "G (16) - A person who holds a valid ticket for a winning Lucky Sum play is entitled to a prize as shown in the attached graphic. A Lucky Sum prize is in addition to a prize, if any, for a straight play, a box play, a straight/box play, or a combo play." Talk about conflicting language - wow - this is the definition of conflicting language! FYI - The sentence included in the Daily 4 game, (G2), is also in the Cash5, Lotto Texas and Texas 2 Step rule. Its purpose is to let people know that if they match 5 numbers, they won't receive the prizes for matching 3 and 4 numbers as well as the match 5 prize. And I can assure you, if you do hit 5 numbers while playing Lotto Texas, they don't pay the prize for matching 3 numbers or 4 numbers in addition to the prize for matching 5 numbers! The G2 sentence should be omitted or players BEWARE - you may not receive prize payments for all bets made on one line! 2) The rule says, "(10) A person may select numbers for a play by: (A) using a self-service terminal." The problem is that you can no longer "select your numbers" using a self service terminal - they changed self service terminals to require playslips and they will print Quick Picks. If you put money in a self service terminal, you cannot get it back should you not have a playslip ready. This statement is misleading for anyone who reads the rule. 3) The rule fails to state the odds of the game. A very significant omission and one that should be spelled out and made public. I can't imagine a rule that fails to tell the odds of a game. 4) The rule does not specify that there is a prize pool. Another very significant omission. During the Commission meeting, they spoke of the prize pool being 50% of sales but it's NOT written in the rule. Why not? They didn't include it in the Pick 3 rule either. Now why do you think they left this percentage out of the rules? They deleted it because the Pick3 has NEVER returned 50% of sales on an overall basis even though the rule said that the prize pool shall be 50% of sales. By not saying anything regarding a prize pool, they are deceiving the public. They made it very clear to the commissioners that the prize pool was 50% but failed to include it in the rule for the People of Texas. If it was important enough to stress to the Commissioners, then I'd say it was important enough to include in the rule. By the way, I call this "deceit by omission." FYI - Last year the Legislature, State Auditors Office and the Sunset Commission told the TLC to guarantee a set percentage of sales that would be returned to the people. With these rules, the TLC is failing to do what they were told to do. The Pick3 game is the states best money maker but this will change when these rules take effect. There's only one way to guarantee us our share of sales and that's by offering pari-mutuel prizes. I can assure you - most of the time - players would be better off IF the payouts were pari-mutuel. 5) The rule doesn't allocate a set percentage of sales to be paid out for each prize category like all other rules do - the Lucky Sum payouts are varied and complicated. A set percentage of sales for each prize category should be stated for the purpose of audits. Having allocations affords them the opportunity to know how much to increase or decrease prize amounts in order to give players their share of sales (50%). But you know what - I just remembered. The TLC staff does not verify prize amounts against what's allocated from sales. They depend 100% on G-Tech to compute these calculations. This was really bad news when I learned this tidbit! Anyway ... 6) The "Prize Chart" for the "Combo Play" is extremely misleading to anyone who reads it - particularly the TX Legislature. Here's how the Daily 4 currently reads in the proposed rule ...
WOW - This paints a really impressive picture ... But let me show you the true costs .... Here's how the chart/picture should read to be VERY clear for anyone who reads them -
For those of you who are confused by the varying costs for the "combo" bet amounts, that's because Daily 4 combinations are either "4 way," "6 way," "12 way" or "24 way" bets. (When playing Pick3, there are "3 way" and "6 way" bets.) The TLC has not disclosed, by way of charts/pictures or words, anything showing the real costs for selecting "combo" bets. They uses the words "base play amount" but no one knows what that really means and they like that. The rule itself says, "(D) The cost of a combo play is determined by multiplying the base play amount selected for the play by the number of winning combinations possible with the four single digit numbers selected for the play" but the picture/chart they're giving us does NOT indicate/show true costs in any way. As you can see by my chart, its easy to tell it like it is. The TLC's chart/picture is very deceiving. This is better known as "deceit by omission." There are "24 Ways" that 4 different digits can come in: 1234, 1243, 1324, 1342, 1423, 1432, 2134, 2143, 2314, 2341, 2413, 2431, 3124, 3142, 3241, 3214, 3412, 3421, 4123, 4132, 4213, 4231, 4312, 4321. A 50 cent combo bet would cost a player $12 to cover all combinations for 4 different digits. There are "12 ways" that two like digits (double digits) and two different digits can come in: 0021, 0012, 0120, 0210, 0201, 0102, 1002, 1020, 1200, 2001, 2100, 2010. There are "6 ways" that two like digits (00) and another 2 like digits (11) can come in - 0011, 0110, 1010, 1001, 1100, 1010. There are "4 ways" that 3 like digits (000) and one different digit can come in - 0001, 0010, 0100, 1000. A combo bet means that you are betting that all four of your numbers will come in so you are betting every possible combination. Much like wheeling. You will win only one of your bets IF all four of your numbers come in in any order because you've bet them all. 7) The Prize Chart for the Lucky Sum fails to disclose the true cost of the tickets too. My picture/chart better describes the costs and prizes for each of the bets. The first column below, titled "Sum Picked," is not what the TLC's chart says. Their chart says "Number Picked" and the sums they show are divided by a comma - so it reads "0,36." They should change the terminology to be clearer and it is my opinion that they should show the real costs to play for winning the prize amounts shown. Like the Combo Chart, they are using the term "base play" which no one understands!
Advice For Players: Don't bet $2, $3, $4, and $5 on a set of numbers. There is a "repeat" key on the terminals that clerks can use to run multiple tickets for the drawing. I realize few retail clerks know how to use the "repeat" key on their terminals but some do so find one that does OR fill out a playslip and ask the clerk to run it 5, 10, 20, 30 times so you can avoid going to a claim center to collect your prize and you can avoid that W-2G. Remember, you can collect from retailers any amount under $599 - you may have to go to several retails to collect - but its worth it! In Summary - The comment period ends today - and yes, I know it's Sunday. And yes, I know too that ya'll couldn't find details on the TLC web site about the proposed Daily 4 game and the changes to Pick3. The TLC was told to make PROPOSED rule changes highly visible but they didn't. No press releases have been issued and no editorial can be found on the TLC web site explaining it in layman terms. The TLC provided a link - that's extremely hard to find - to the Texas Register. They expect you to go read the LEGAL rule and figure it out by yourself. Again I'll say, the TLC is NOT consumer friendly! They don't want your comments, they won't listen to the People. With a few exceptions, the TLC is hurting the state of Texas more than they are hurting players with these changes. I was in no hurry to post the details. I will, however, fax my comments in so they will AT LEAST know not to adopt the rule as written ... and I want it on the record that the rule contains conflicting/incorrect/deceptive language, no prize pool, no odds, no prize allocations, plus anything else that I mentioned earlier. If anyone is compelled to comment, you can email or fax ((512) 344-5189) a comment today. It appears they want to know your full name, address, city, state, zip, phone number and email address should you comment. You have until midnight to make comments on both the Pick3 and Daily 4 rules. If you have comments for me, send them to lottoreport@lottoreport.com. I will NOT submit them to the TLC. Pick 3 Proposed Changes - Read the Details |