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Don't Mess with Lotto, Players Say of Proposal
By JOHN W. GONZALEZ Lottery watchers are in a tizzy over plans to increase the number of balls in the twice-weekly drawings from 50 to 54 -- a move that would make winning less likely but more lucrative. "Fifty balls vs. 54 balls for Lotto Texas? Just say no!" cries a headline on a Web site for lottery fans, where players are being urged to circulate petitions at retail stores and mount e-mail and letter-writing campaigns against the proposed rules. "Seems greed is at the root of this change," one Texan wrote. "Leave our balls alone!" another player demanded. The Lottery Commission unveiled its total plan on Friday. But word had leaked out long before, creating an instant controversy. The proposal, which will be reviewed at a public hearing on Sept. 27, was developed for a couple of reasons: Lotto ticket sales have fallen and many players say the answer is bigger jackpots. That requires a game that is tougher to win, which resulted in the plan for 54 numbers. In addition, the new plan would generate $20 million more a year in revenue for the state, while revenue has been falling off for the past couple of years. (Just what the players of Texas needed to hear - the state will generate $20 million more in revenue from this plan - Hey, this money comes from loyal players. So you want to increase our odds by 10 million so the STATE can come out ahead. Good thinking.) "Many of our players don't get excited enough to get into the game until the jackpot climbs into the high double-digit range," said Lottery Director Linda Cloud. "Without these changes, that will be harder and harder to achieve. (No it wouldn't. Quit taking away from us and start building morale again. Get rid of your obvious mistake, Texas Million. Then those players will spend their dollars playing Lotto Texas, Cash5 or Pick3. How long are you going to continue a "loosing" game?) "The game enhancements are designed to help the top jackpot prize roll to larger amounts in an effort to avoid possibly having to lower the current starting jackpot prize from $4 million to $3 million." (So lower the starting jackpot - let it climb in its own time. Don't increase our odds so you can save face amongst your peers (other state lotteries). We don't care if you can't say Texas has the best and brings in the most money. Leave our game ALONE.) The regulations, unveiled in the Texas Register on Friday, could take effect as early as Oct. 10, unless amended, postponed or canceled by the Lottery Commission. (Attention people, SPEAK UP or else.) Commission members, who portray the changes as crucial for ending the sales slump, set a public hearing for Monday, Sept. 27 at lottery headquarters in Austin's Sixth Street entertainment district. (Hey Commsissioners, why not fix the games that are broken before breaking another game and adding to the slump?) Some veteran players have asserted that the hearing will be a charade because decision-makers' minds are already made up. Even the timing of the hearing -- at 10 a.m. on a Monday -- has been assailed by players who say they can't leave work on a weekday to come to Austin to speak their minds. (That's right! Even I will have difficulties attending. I publish every other Monday and that's my press day. Of course, the Texas Lottery knew that when they set the date - not that they pay any attention to me. <great big grin> But, I wouldn't miss this hearing for all the tea in China! I absolutely will be there! ) The controversial proposals would affect only the Lotto game, although Texas lawmakers earlier this year authorized an increase in scratch-off game prizes. (Because people quit buying scratch off tickets when the Legislature made winning more difficult. One would think that they would learn from their mistakes!) In Lotto, players currently choose -- or have a computer choose for them -- six numbers from 1 to 50. The correct selection of all six numbers drawn carries winning odds of about 1 in 15.8 million. Under the new proposal, players would choose six numbers from 1 to 54, upping the odds of winning to about 1 in 25.8 million. (Who wants higher odds besides the Texas Lottery Commission?) But private lottery analyst Dawn Nettles of Garland, author of The Lotto Report newsletter and Web site, said she's being inundated with negative reaction to the proposals, which also call for adding a seventh, "bonus" ball for Lotto drawings. Dozens of angry comments about the rules have been aired on Nettles' Web site. (The Lottery is not "adding" a 7th ball, they are proposing to "draw" a 7th ball from a total of 54 balls. They are wanting to add 4 balls and increase odds to 25.8 million and in return, give us more ways to win smaller amounts. For smaller payouts, players would be better off playing Cash 5 and Pick3. In fact, this is why these games came to be. The odds are certainly much better for winning more money playing Cash 5 and Pick 3 than they are in the proposed figures playing Lotto Texas!) "From what the Lottery Commission has proposed, I'm not sure there's a single working brain cell in the whole bunch of them," one player wrote. (Ditto) "Adding four more numbers is ludicrous and will definitely drive me away for good," said another. The fears and criticisms are misguided and based on misinformation, lottery officials contend. "The main response so far is confusion," said lottery spokesman Keith Elkins, who said at least 100 citizens, including Nettles, have submitted concerns. (You only have 100? Does that include the phone calls? Gee, I've got considerably more than that.) A common misunderstanding regards the role of the seventh "bonus" ball, which is supposed to provide players extra chances to win secondary prizes, Elkins said. (This WILL provide extra chances to win but at what cost to the players - 25.8 million to one?) "Some people have portrayed it as being `Powerball.' It's really not, because the player will never select the seventh number, and all of the balls will be in one drum as opposed to two drums, which is statistically significant," Elkins said. (Keith, I think the reason for the confusion is because of the statement that appears on your web site explaning the Proposed changes. It reads, "Secondly, we will use 54 balls instead of the current 50 balls. The biggest effect of this will be to increase the odds of winning the jackpot from about 1 in 15.8 million to about 1 in 25.8 million. This still compares very favorably to mega-jackpot lotto games in other states, some of which have odds of about 1 in 80 million." This statement automatically makes people think of Powerball or refer to it as being like powerball. Can't you see that?) Other changes involving doubling the number of low-dollar prize winners, from about 275,000 to more than 606,000; and reducing the odds of winning a prize -- any prize -- to 1 in 43 compared to the current 1 in 57. (CORRECTION - The numbers "275,000 to over 606,000" are wrong. They should be "160,143 to over 282,800." Thank you Gerald Busald for catching this error on 9-27-99! I'm pleased to announce the Lottery Commission removed them from their site too.) Non-jackpot prizes, which range from $3 to $1,500, would be increased to a range of $5 to $10,000. (Keith, your new plan offers us two $5 payouts, two $25 payouts, one $250 payout; one $1000 payout and one $10,000 payout and one big jackpot prize. This totals 8 ways to win some kind of prize. This could double the number of potential winners for the lower prize amounts but it is highly unlikely because of the higher odds of picking these numbers. Tell me, what are the odds for picking 3 of 6 numbers from 50 balls versus picking 3 of 6 from 54 balls. Why aren't you boasting these figures around for us to see?) Still another change in the Lotto game would increase to $5 from $3 the prize for correcting picking three of the six numbers. A $5 prize also would be available to those who pick two of six and have the seventh "bonus" ball roll their way. Similar prize-boosting changes would affect situations in which four of six or five of six numbers were correctly picked. (Keith, this statement only HALF true. In this statement, you failed to advise us that under the proposed changes, if a player has 4 of the first 6 numbers drawn or 5 of the first 6 numbers drawn, the payouts are considerably LESS than before. Hardly 'prize boosting' as you stated! Under the proposed plan, prize amounts are only higher if a person has the 7th number drawn AND in correctly matching 3 of 6 numbers.) Elkins said the intent of the proposal is to answer a plea from players that has been heard since the games began seven years ago.' "We have consistently heard from players that they would like to win more money at the lower levels, if they can't win the jackpot ... The $3 payoff (for correctly picking three numbers) doesn't seem high enough to them," he said. ($5 Versus $3 is NOT enough considering the new proposed odds - 1 in 25.8 compared to 1 in 15.8.!) Because of changing demographics and the large number of regular players, "the jackpot is simply getting hit more often than it was in the early stages of the game," Elkins said. (This is a good one. What do you mean by "changing demographics" and the "large number of regular customers?" Are you saying that players can predict numbers and the "regualar players" are winning too often so you want to make it harder for us to win? Come on Keith, elaborate on this statement. ) Focus groups used by the commission to assess perceptions about proposed changes have registered concern. However, Elkins said, "Once they hear the whole concept ... they say it's the only game in town and they're going to continue playing." (I think we should hear directly from the people involved in these "focus groups"who heard this plan and advised you it was a good idea. Through the grapevine, I heard they were reluctant. How 'bout it, I'm sure they would be more than happy to tell the people of Texas what they told you. My bet is they told you OK to drawing a 7th bonus number and perhaps even OK to the proposed 8 payouts, but I find it hard to believe they said OK to adding 4 new balls. Hold a press conference and let the press hear from these people themselves. OK?) 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